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Peace Finance Hub

An SFG Impact Theme

Why Peace Finance?

  • The number of civil wars has almost tripled over the course of the past decade, with a six-fold increase in battle-related deaths since 2011. The OECD estimates that 1.9 billion people now live in fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCS), amounting to 24 per cent of the global population. In 2022, the global economic impact of violence was estimated to be $17.5 trillion, equivalent to 12,9 per cent of the global GDP, or 2,200$ per person. It is time to recognise that conflict, much like climate change, is a defining feature of modern times, which will require concerted efforts to surmount.

 

  • This means that most globally diversified investment portfolios are highly exposed to conflict risks, yet this fact is often invisible to investors. This is because most exposure to FCS is indirect and through the supply chains of large, multinational corporations.  The raw materials needed for food production, digitalisation, the energy transition and various consumer goods are often sourced from FCS. Such raw materials include copper, cobalt, tin, tantalum, tungsten, rare earth metals, gold, coffee, cocoa, cotton, leather, etc. This trend is only set to increase as the world transitions to a more sustainable future.

 

  • Due to the systemic nature of conflict risk in global supply chains, it is nearly impossible and often counter-productive for investors to avoid exposure to FCS altogether. Rather, the solution is to become more sophisticated when it comes to identifying and managing conflict risks. This means first recognising that when companies operate in FCS their presence and activities both shape the context and are influenced by the context (i.e. a two-way relationship). Therefore, companies insensitive to conflict will generate, sustain, or drive conflict; directly or indirectly. Whether it be through their operations or capital expenditure decisions, corporates can contribute to peace and stability, or to violence and conflict– there is no such thing as a ‘neutral’ investment.

 

  • However, a peace lens is rarely integrated into company due diligence, ESG analysis, engagement strategies or impact frameworks of asset managers. Moreover, the scarcity of information and data on this important topic can lead investors to underestimate the impact of conflict and instability on their portfolios, leading to misallocation and mispricing of underlying assets.

 

  • The first step is to understand where the exposure lies and to prioritise minimising the negative impacts of investments on conflict. More forward-looking investors, or those seeking to have a positive social impact may then also seek to identify opportunities for investors to encourage investees to contribute to peace.

 

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